I am all cash as I type this after pulling off one short scalp this morning on the $ES_M (S&P Emini March Futures contract) for +4.25 points. Evidence seems to be mounting that this rally is running on empty. The dollar is looking stronger, equity leaders are taking it on the chin today, money is flowing to the 30 year treasury bond, volume is pretty strong to the downside, and volatility is increasing. Last but not least, the NYSE $TICK registered it's 4 worst half-hour tick readings this morning (year to date).
I've called market tops before and been burned, so I'm not going to do that this time. I'll just sit this out for a while. If I miss a big move to the upside, so be it. The definition of a market top implies EXTREME volatility. I LOVE leveraged instruments such as options and futures and they are great for capturing quick gains during breakouts and trends. However, as someone who uses a lot of leveraged instruments, I can get crushed if my portfolio gets in too deep. If there is ANYTHING i've learned over the past 14 years of trading, it's that MARKET TOPS AND BOTTOMS CAN KILL. Minimal trading for me until the market reveals it's true self.